Women’s 100m Predictions Present Complicated Truth

NEW YORK: Both the men’s and women’s 100m races at the 2011 World Championships in Daegu present tantalizing predictions, but the women’s event is a close call. The Jamaican sprint queens will have to be at their supreme best to topple the American Carmelita Jeter, who is currently in sublime form and looks immaculate, physically. Standing just about 5’ 4” tall, she is a giant among women sprinters, and the drought of an individual gold medal for her at the global level might be coming to an end.

The legendary Merlene Ottey, along with Juliet Cuthbert and Grace Jackson, reinforced Jamaica’s reputation as the sprint factory of the world. But even before that trio took to the fore, pint-sized Lilieth Hodges set the track alight back in 1978, running a then national record of 11.14secs for the 100m. Hodges’ generation of female sprint stars was preceded by Una Morris, Audrey Reid, Carol Cummings, and Rosie Allwood-Morrison, to name a few. Back then, however, Jamaica did not have the depth of star sprinters, as it does now. That depth explains why joint 2008 Olympic silver medalist Sherone Simpson was edged into fourth place at the 2011 Jamaica Nationals by young Jura Levy.

I expect three Jamaicans – defending champion Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, Veronica Campbell-Brown and Kerron Stewart – to figure prominently in the women’s 100m finals at Worlds. I am ruling out Jura Levy at this point; she needs more time. Kelly-Ann Baptiste of Trinidad and Tobago along with Ivet Lalova of Bulgaria, who is back after bouts of injury, and Americans Jeter, Marshevet Myers and Miki Barber should ensure a humdinger of a race. I expect heavy fireworks.

The Fight For Medals

I believe Fraser-Pryce, Campbell-Brown, Stewart and Jeter will fight perniciously for the medals. The Jamaican stars would be competing against one another, except that on this occasion a fit, fearless and fortitudinous Carmelita Jeter will not go down without a fight. If Fraser-Pryce gets a terrific start, she will be difficult to beat. However, I have been concerned with the ‘weak’ part of her race, the last 10 meters. This is not an anomaly to Stephen Francis sprinters, who otherwise have ‘perfect’ form. That notwithstanding, the diminutive and charismatic Fraser-Pryce is a big-meet competitor, has enormous credentials, is defending champion, and has a point to prove. The evergreen and multi-decorated Ms. Campbell-Brown will not be denied a medal; the gold medal might be out of reach, but to count her out might be perilous. Her starts have been inconsistent this season, but she has the heart of a lion and will finish like a train. Kerron Stewart is on her way back from injuries, and is due for a breakthrough at the top of the podium. Her position at the finish depends on her start.

Carmelita Jeter is primed by John Smith to beat all and sundry. I disagree with some pundits who posit that she is not a big-meet performer, that she is too old for four grueling rounds of a championship, or that her head is not in the right place. Ms. Jeter’s biggest detriment was her start coupled with the many races she ran leading up to a championship. At age 32, she may have gotten it right, just in time. She has raced relatively sparingly this season, producing a personal best 22.20 over 200m and a global best of 10.70 for the 100m.

Too Old For The Rounds?

Aside from her improved start, she has greater acceleration over the last meters of a race that no other woman can match. In fact, in reviewing tapes of past races, only the late Florence Griffith-Joyner, Marion Jones, and over 200m, Jamaica’s Grace Jackson, at her illustrious best, bear comparison in my opinion. And Jeter is not too old to go four rounds in big meets. She proved that at the US Trials in June when besting a formidable field.

At age 32, Linford Christie clocked 9.96secs to win the men’s 100m title at the 1992 Barcelona Olympic Games. Merlene Ottey won back-to-back gold medals in the women’s 200m at the 1993 and 1995 Worlds, and just missed a medal in the controversial women’s 100m at the 2000 Melbourne Olympics, when she was 40. But I confess that Ms. Ottey is an exceptional athlete. Could Ms. Jeter be taking a page out of her book? Only time and the entire Caribbean contingent of fast women will tell.